Chase Drops the Predictable 48-Month Clock

In a significant policy shift announced June 23, 2025, Chase eliminated its long-standing 48-month waiting period between welcome bonuses and replaced it with a subjective eligibility system. The change fundamentally alters how rewards enthusiasts approach Chase cards—and not necessarily for the better.

What Changed

The Old System: 48-Month Rule

Previously, Chase’s Sapphire products had a clear, predictable restriction:

• Receive a Sapphire Preferred or Sapphire Reserve welcome bonus
• Wait exactly 48 months
• Apply again and receive another bonus

This mechanical rule created a reliable cycle. You knew precisely when you’d become eligible again, allowing you to plan applications years in advance.

The New System: Subjective Eligibility

Chase now uses internal criteria—similar to American Express’s infamous “pop-up” system—to determine bonus eligibility on a case-by-case basis. When you apply, Chase may:

• Approve you with the full welcome bonus
• Approve you without any welcome bonus (the “pop-up”)
• Deny your application entirely

There’s no public timeline, no clear eligibility criteria, and no way to definitively know beforehand whether you’ll receive the bonus.

How “Pop-Up Jail” Works

The pop-up system appears to evaluate:

Likely Factors

• Card relationship history: How long you’ve held Chase cards
• Spending patterns: Whether you use your existing Chase cards regularly
• Profitability assessment: Whether Chase considers you a valuable customer
• Recent bonus history: Though no longer mechanical, bonus frequency may still matter
• Credit behavior: Overall credit utilization and payment history

The Pop-Up Experience

When triggering a pop-up, you’ll typically see a message during the application process indicating you’re not eligible for the welcome bonus but can still proceed with the application. You can:

1. Proceed anyway: Get the card without the bonus
2. Abandon the application: Walk away and try again later

Most savvy applicants abandon and wait, hoping to become eligible later.

Cards Affected

The policy change primarily affects:

Definitely Affected

• Chase Sapphire Preferred
• Chase Sapphire Reserve

Likely Affected

• Other Chase co-branded cards may adopt similar systems
• Ink business cards could follow

Unknown

• Freedom cards (typically less restricted anyway)
• Some partner cards with their own rules

The Sapphire Flexibility Change

Alongside eliminating the 48-month rule, Chase relaxed restrictions on holding multiple Sapphire products:

Old Policy: You could not hold both Sapphire Preferred and Sapphire Reserve simultaneously

New Policy: You may hold both cards after approval, though bonus restrictions between products remain complex

This creates an unusual situation where card-holding flexibility increased while bonus predictability decreased.

Impact on Your Strategy

For New Applicants

If you’ve never had a Chase Sapphire card, the change likely doesn’t affect you immediately. Apply as normal; first-time applicants generally receive bonuses without issue.

For Previous Bonus Recipients

If you earned a Sapphire bonus previously, you now face uncertainty:

• The 48-month clock no longer guarantees eligibility
• You may need to wait longer than 48 months
• Or you may become eligible sooner—there’s no way to know
• Applying and getting pop-up’d wastes a hard inquiry

For Active Points Optimizers

This change significantly impacts those who planned multi-year bonus cycles:

• You can no longer reliably schedule Sapphire bonuses every 4 years
• The “upgrade to Reserve, downgrade later, wait 48 months, apply fresh” strategy is now uncertain
• Product changes and application timing require more caution

How to Navigate the New System

Stay Active on Existing Cards

Pop-up systems typically favor customers who use their cards regularly. If you have Chase cards:

• Put some spending on them monthly
• Avoid sock-drawering cards you plan to apply for in the future
• Consider whether your relationship appears “profitable” to Chase

Test Before Committing

Some applicants use “dummy booking” or similar methods to test eligibility before a hard inquiry. The reliability of these tests is debated—proceed with caution and understand they’re not foolproof.

Diversify Your Portfolio

With Chase bonuses becoming unpredictable, consider:

• Citi Strata cards (different issuer, different rules)
• Capital One products (has 48-month rule but no pop-up system yet)
• American Express cards (similar pop-up risk, but different valuable cards)

Document Everything

Keep records of:

• When you received previous bonuses
• Your current cards and opening dates
• Application attempts and outcomes

This data helps you identify patterns over time.

Comparison: Old vs. New

Factor	Old 48-Month Rule	New Pop-Up System
Predictability	High—exact date known	Low—subjective
Planning	Easy multi-year cycles	Difficult to schedule
Eligibility criteria	Time-based only	Multiple unknown factors
Recourse	Wait and apply	Unclear; may require behavior changes
Transparency	Clear published terms	Opaque internal criteria

What This Means Long-Term

Chase appears to be moving toward the American Express model of selective bonus distribution. This likely reflects:

• Profitability concerns: Issuers want to limit bonuses to customers who generate revenue
• Industry trends: More issuers adopting similar subjective systems
• Reduced predictability: Banks prefer flexibility over rigid rules

For consumers, this represents a shift away from the transparent, gameable systems that made credit card rewards optimization possible.

Key Takeaways

• 48-month rule eliminated as of June 23, 2025
• Replaced with pop-up eligibility based on undisclosed criteria
• No public timeline for becoming eligible again
• Sapphire card holding rules relaxed (can hold both simultaneously)
• Affects Sapphire Preferred and Reserve primarily; other cards may follow
• Strategy impact: Multi-year bonus cycles are now unpredictable
• Stay active on existing Chase cards to maintain positive relationship

Frequently Asked Questions

Does this mean I can never get another Sapphire bonus?

Not necessarily. You may still receive bonuses—the criteria are simply unknown. Some people may get bonuses more quickly; others may wait longer than 48 months.

How do I know if I’ll get the pop-up?

There’s no reliable method to know in advance. Some applicants report success with test methods, but these aren’t guaranteed.

Should I close my existing Sapphire card?

Closing cards doesn’t appear to help and may hurt. The pop-up system likely considers your full relationship history, not just current cards.

Will Chase tell me why I’m ineligible?

Generally, no. Chase doesn’t publicly explain pop-up eligibility decisions. You’ll simply see a message indicating bonus ineligibility.

Does this affect Ink business cards?

The formal change targeted Sapphire products. Whether Ink cards adopt similar systems remains uncertain—monitor data points from other applicants.

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Disclaimer: Credit card issuer policies change without notice. The pop-up system is opaque by design. This article reflects reported data points as of publication—verify current terms and eligibility on Chase’s website before applying.

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